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A new study is being billed as a breakthrough in the predictability of the El Niño effect. The study finds that the Bjerknes feedback, a process that alters the volume of cold deepwater that rises in the East Pacific, is not an essential indicator of an El Niño, contrary to prior belief. The study instead finds that warm subsurface waters discharge up to 18 months before the warming occurs at the surface, thus activating the El Niño effect. [Source: University of Maryland]
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