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In their original paper the authors stated "the skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of the mid-1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution." In Comments on "Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations" Smith et al. challenge that assertion, contending that the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) was able to make a successful retrospective forecast of that shift. The authors stand by their original assertion and present additional analyses in their reply using output from DePreSys retrospective forecasts to support their assessment. [Source: Journal of Climate]
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