COSEE Ocean Systems: News
The Arbitrary Definition of the Current Atlantic Major Hurricane Landfall Drought
Description: A major hurricane [96+ knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s-1) of maximum sustained wind] has not made landfall in the United States since Wilma (2005). Recent elegant stochastic-statistical modeling estimates the return period of a 9-yr streak for this metric as 177 yr, suggesting extraordinary rarity, especially in the context of the length of the record (1851-2014). Current awareness of the drought is increased given that the 2015 hurricane season is expected to be suppressed from El Niño and the recent anniversaries of several noteworthy landfalls. Yet, here we show that the significance or even existence of the current 9-yr drought is highly dependent on the metric used. [Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society]
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Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publish Date: 5/1/2016
Reading Level: Expert
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